Tymoshenko case: citizens’ evaluations in dynamics

The sociological group "Rating" continues to research citizens’ attitudes towards Tymoshenko case (first results were presented at the end of September 2011).

• One month after the sentence, the majority of Ukrainians continue to recognize Y. Tymoshenko’s guilt in the "gas case", but consider this matter to be rather political and insist that the ex-prime minister needs to be set free.
• Opinions as to whether the former prime minister has the right to participate in elections-2012 and whether comments of European politicians interfere in affairs of Ukraine - divided almost evenly.
• The dynamics indicates that Tymoshenko case becomes clearly ideological rather than economic or anti-corruption.
• According to the majority, the last decision in this case has to be made by the President, not by courts or public prosecution.

Just like a month ago, respondents believe Y. Tymoshenko to be guilty (44%) rather than not guilty (36%) in exceeding her commission when signing gas contracts with Russia in 2009. Every fifth respondent has not decided on this issue.

However, only a quarter (24%) of respondents supports the imprisonment verdict in Tymoshenko case as to gas contracts in 2009. The majority (52%) insists on mitigating or abolishing the sentence. Thus, 12% of respondents support nominal sentence or the amnesty after the decision of the court on the deprivation of liberty, 21% of respondents recognize that gas contracts in 2009 were not profitable for Ukraine, yet believe that Y. Tymoshenko should be released from criminal liability, other 18% believe all charges need to be removed from the ex-premier. 22% of respondents are undecided on this issue.

 Like a month ago, approximately one quarter (27%) believe that the criminal case against Y. Tymoshenko is rather the rule of law, while the majority (54%) thinks it is political persecution. Other 19% are undecided on this issue.

More than a half (51%) of respondents believes that the new criminal case against Y. Tymoshenko, excited due to the transfer of the UESU corporation debts to the budget of Ukraine, is also political persecution. Only 28% believe that this new case is likely legitimate.

Thus, Tymoshenko case, in the perception of Ukrainian citizens, becomes more and more political and can enhance regional division. This is indicated, in particular, by regional dynamics. In Donbas and in the South the number of people who believe that Y. Tymoshenko is guilty has increased. In other regions, including the East, this number has decreased, and the number of respondents who do not believe in the guilt of the former prime minister has therefore increased. Only in Donbas the number of people who support Y. Tymoshenko’s imprisonment exceeds the number of people who insist on the mitigation or the abolition of the sentence. In other regions the situation is the opposite. The idea of ​​political persecution prevails in all regions except Donbas.

Opinions on whether Y. Tymoshenko should be eligible to participate in parliamentary elections in 2012 were divided almost evenly: 42% believe that she should and 40% believe that she should not. 18% are undecided on this issue.

In the West, in the North and in the Center people rather believe that the former prime minister should participate in the next election, while in the East, in the North and in Donbas – that she should not.

Y. Tymoshenko’s eligibility for participation in the next election is supported by 100% of voters of Batkivshchyna, about 60% of supporters of Freedom, Civil Position, Front for Change, more than a half of supporters of the party UDAR, one third of the "against all" and "undecided" groups and only 9% of voters of the Party of Regions.

The majority of respondents (41%) believes that the final decision in Tymoshenko case (if she will be released or not) depends only on the President V. Yanukovych.

 A lot fewer respondents believe that the final decision in Tymoshenko case depends on courts (19%) and the General Procurator's Office (10%). Even fewer think it depends on the Parliament (5%) and on the Security Service of Ukraine (3%).

2% believe that it depends on neither of the mentioned institutions, 16% are undecided on this issue.

 Only residents of Donbas and supporters of the Party of Regions believe that the final decision in Tymoshenko case depends more on courts, the rest of respondents believe that it depends more on the President.

Most respondents (46%) believe that after the change of power in the country criminal cases against members of the current government will also be initiated. Only one third of respondents do not agree with this statement. Other 21% are undecided on this issue.

Interestingly, supporters of the Party of Regions and Batkivshchyna the least believe that after the change of power in the country criminal cases against members of the current government will also be initiated, supporters of Freedom, Civil Position and UDAR believe it the most.

 40% of respondents believe European politicians’ comments on Y. Tymoshenko’s sentence do not interfere in internal affairs of Ukraine. Slightly fewer respondents (36%) think they do interfere in the affairs of Ukraine. A quarter could not answer this question.

Thus, 40% of respondents have a positive attitude towards European politicians’ comments on Tymoshenko case and 31% have a negative attitude. At the same time, 15% are indifferent to this issue and other 15% are undecided on this issue.

The position of people, who believe in the interference in the internal affairs of Ukraine, is not categorical, since only two-thirds of them have a negative attitude to the fact that European politicians comment on the sentence in Tymoshenko case. However, every tenth of them has a positive attitude to statements made by politicians of the European Union, and more than every tenth are indifferent to statements of European politicians.

In the North, in the West and in the Center the attitude to comments of European politicians on Tymoshenko case is the most positive: respectively, more than 80% of supporters of Batkivshchyna, almost 60% - Freedom and Civil Position, almost 50% - Front for Change and UDAR.

In Donbas, in the South and in the East the attitude to such comments is the most negative: respectively, more than 60% of supporters of the Party of Regions and over 40% - the CPU.

The target audience of the research: the population of Ukraine aged from 18 and older. Optional quantity: 2000 respondents. The methods of investigation: personal formalized interview according to the questionnaire (face to face). Measure of inaccuracy for the values close to 50% is less than 2,2%, for the values close to 30% – less than 2%, for the values close to 10% – less than 1,3. The period of completion: 25 of October – 6 of November 2011

The oblast’ distribution:

West: Volyns’ka, Transcarpathia, Ivano–Frankivs’ka, L’vivs’ka, Rivnens’ka, Ternopil’s’ka, Chernivets’ka.
Centre: Vinnyts’ka, Kirovograds’ka, Poltavs’ka, Khmel’nyts’ka, Cherkas’ka.
North: Kyiv, Kyivs’ka, Zhytomyrs’ka, Sums’ka, Chernihivs’ka.
South: AR Crimea, Odes’ka, Khersons’ka, Mykolaivs’ka, Sevastopol
East: Dnipropetrovs’ka, Zaporiz’ka, Kharkivs’ka.
Donbass: Donets’ka, Luhans’ka.