Electoral moods of Ukrainian population: December 2009

Vote shares in the first round of Presidential elections one month before they take place are as follows. V. Yanukovych has the highest percentage of 33.8% of all respondents. Y. Tymoshenko has the second high of 18.8%. A. Yatsenuyk (5.9%) together with V. Yuschenko (5.5%) and S. Tihipko (5.5%) all rank third, given statistical errors.  They are followed by P. Symonenko (3.8%), V. Lytvyn (3.3%) and O. Tyahnybok (1.7%).  The rest of the candidates have a share of less than 1%.  The share of respondents not supporting either of the candidates is 7.9%.  The share of respondents who have not decided yet is 7%.

Compared to October, there has been an increase in the vote share of V. Yanukovych (from 31% to 34%), as well as of V. Yuschenko (from 3.4% to 5.5%) and of S. Tihipko (from 2.9% to 5.5%).  In case of V. Yanukovych, the increase is due to percentage raise in the Eastern and Central parts of Ukraine, as well as in Donbas.  In case of V. Yuschenko, the increase is due to percentage raise in the Western part of Ukraine followed by percentage loss of Y. Tymoshenko and A. Yatsenuyk.  In case of S. Tihipko, the increase is due to percentage gain across all Ukraine, except the Eastern part.  Also, compared to October, number of respondents who have not decided yet has decreased by one third – from 10.3% to 7%.

Voter turnout is expected to be 72% in the first round and 67% in the second round, provided that V. Yanukovych and Y. Tymoshenko make it to the second round.  The turnout increase will result in a better outcome for Y. Tymoshenko and a worsened one for V. Yanukovych.  The percentage gap between them in this case may narrow down to 6% in favour of Tymoshenko.

Some 43.4% of respondents said they would vote for the leader of the Regions’ party and 30.7% said they would support the leader of BYT, in case Yanukovych and Tymoshenko make it to the second round of the elections.  12.6% said they would vote against both, while 8.6% have not decided yet.  52.2% of the respondents who intend to vote in the second round support V. Yanukovych, 34% of them support Y. Tymoshenko, 7.9% of them are against both of them, 5.9% of them have not decided yet.

The gap between these candidates was 10% and 13% in October and December, respectively.  The gap between Yanukovych and Yatsenuyk has widened from 13% to 19% in favour of the former.  The gap between Yanukovych and Yuschenko has remained the same and constitutes 32%.

Respondents believe that “hands on manager trait has stronger association with V. Yanukovych than with Y. Tymoshenko (41% vs 19%), as well as “family man” (32% vs 15%) and “takes care of people like me” (31% vs 18%).  Yet both these politicians are considered “strong leaders” (one third of respondents for each).  Respondents believe that being “diplomatic” has stronger association with Y. Tymoshenko (31% vs 28%).  At the same time, being a “patriot” has stronger association with V. Yanukovych (28%) than with Y. Tymoshenko (24%).  Yet, 37% of respondents (43% in the Western part and 44% in the Eastern) believe that neither Tymoshenko nor Yanukovych is a “patriot”.

Respondents believe that the most favourable power configuration outcomes of the elections are as follows: Yanukovych is President and Tihipko is Prime Minister (40% felt positively or rather positively); Yanukovych is President and Yatsenuyk is Prime Minister (33%); Tymoshenko is President and Yatsenuyk is Prime Minister (28%); Tymoshenko is President and Tihipko is Prime Minister (26%).  In the Western part, there are positive feelings towards Tymoshenko becoming President and Yuschenko becoming Prime Minister (31%).  The respondents believed that the worst configuration is Yanukovych becoming President and Yuschenko becoming Prime Minister (12%).

Majority of the respondents believe that it will be V. Yanukovych and Y. Tymoshenko who will shape the power configuration.  About 13% predict that Yanukovych becomes President and Tymoshenko becomes Prime Minister, yet only 6% believe it is optimal for the country.  About 9% predict that Tymoshenko becomes President and Yanukovych becomes Prime Minister, yet only 3% believe it is optimal.  45% of the respondents cannot predict the power configuration.
Some 38.6% have positive feelings (or rather positive) about advertising campaigns of V. Yanukovych, 37.8% of S. Tihipko, 29.3% of Y. Tymoshenko, 27.9% of V. Lytvyn, 27.4% of A. Yatsenuyk, 13.% of V. Yuschenko, respectively.

The target audience of the research: the population of Ukraine aged from 18 and older. Optional quantity: 2000 respondents. The methods of investigation: personal formalized interview according to the questionnaire (face to face). Measure of inaccuracy for the values close to 50% is less than 3%, for the values close to 30% – less than 2,65, for the values close to 10% – less than 1,8. The period of completion: 28th of November – 7th of December 2009

The oblast’ distribution:

West: Volyns’ka, Transcarpathia, Ivano–Frankivs’ka, L’vivs’ka, Rivnens’ka, Ternopil’s’ka, Chernivets’ka.
Centre: Vinnyts’ka, Kirovograds’ka, Poltavs’ka, Khmel’nyts’ka, Cherkas’ka.
North: Kyiv, Kyivs’ka, Zhytomyrs’ka, Sums’ka, Chernihivs’ka.
South: AR Crimea, Odes’ka, Khersons’ka, Mykolaivs’ka, Sevastopol
East: Dnipropetrovs’ka, Zaporiz’ka, Kharkivs’ka.
Donbass: Donets’ka, Luhans’ka.