Electoral moods of Ukrainian population: March 2010

According to the research conducted during the second round of presidential elections V. Yanukovych was supported by 67% of supporters of P. Symonenko, 40% - of S. Tihipko, 25% - of V. Lytvyn, 16% - of A. Yatsenyuk and 8% - of Viktor Yushchenko. Y. Tymoshenko was supported by 76% of supporters of O. Tiahnybok, 60% - of Viktor Yushchenko, 50% - of A. Yatsenyuk, 40% - of V. Lytvyn, 33% - of S. Tihipko and 13% - of P. Symonenko. About a quarter of supporters of V. Yushchenko, A. Yatsenyuk and V. Lytvyn voted against both candidates.

It is interesting that 21% of voters, who voted for Viktor Yanukovych in the second round, actually voted against Yulia Tymoshenko. The majority of them were from the Centre, the North and the East of the country. Conversely, a quarter of voters who voted for Y. Tymoshenko, actually voted against V. Yanukovych. The majority of them were from the North and the East.

Thus, in the second round of presidential elections, about a quarter of voters (6.7 millions of Ukrainians) voted not for, but rather against: either against Tymoshenko, against Yanukovych, or against both at the same time. The rest – about 70% - voted for a particular candidate.

On the present day, at least one in four people from the category of voters who voted against supports S. Tihipko every tenth supports A. Yatsenyuk, one in ten remains against all. However, about 18% of them already support the current head of the state, and 7% - his competitor in the elections.

As of early March the ratings of politicians are the following (among all respondents): Viktor Yanukovych - 38.2%, Tymoshenko - 22.4%, S. Tihipko - 13,6%, Yatsenyuk - 5%, Victor Yushchenko - 2.1%, P. Symonenko - 1,7%, V. Lytvyn - 1.2%, O. Tiahnybok - 1.1%. Other politicians - 1.1%, against all - 4%, will not take part in elections - 5.7%, have not decided - 4.2%.

Compared to the first round of elections, the support of current president Viktor Yanukovych has increased the most significantly.

The rating of Y. Tymoshenko remains practically unchanged: 22% of all respondents and 25% of those who will participate in the elections. However, there were minor changes in Y. Tymoshenko’s electorate structure: support in the West somewhat increased primarily due to supporters of Viktor Yushchenko, support in the North remained unchanged, while in the Center it slightly decreased due to S. Tihipko. In addition, support of Y. Tymoshenko decreased in the East, in the South and in Donbas, where Viktor Yanukovych consolidated his positions.

The rating of S. Tihipko has not changed (about 13%): the loss of supporters in Donbas and in the South is compensated by flow from Yulia Timoshenko, A. Yatsenyuk and Viktor Yushchenko, that took place in the West, in the Center and in the North. The support of S. Tihipko in the East is stable and is about 20%.

V. Yushchenko’s supporters halved since January (from 5% to 2%). A. Yatsenyuk also lost some of his supporters (from 7 to 5%).

On the present day, the electorate of V. Yanukovych is mobilized more than supporters of other politicians, which can explain the electoral lead of Viktor Yanukovych and the Party of Regions. Thus, about 75% of supporters of the Party of Regions have expressed willingness to participate in early parliamentary elections. This is the highest rate, e.g. only 64% of supporters of Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc are mobilized, 61% - Front for Change, 57% - Strong Ukraine.

As of early March, the situation with party ratings is as follows (among all respondents): the Party of Regions - 36%, Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc - 22%, Strong Ukraine (S. Tihipko) - 12%, the Front for Change (A. Yatsenyuk) - 5% CPU - 2.7%, Our Ukraine (V. Yushchenko) - 1.9%, Lytvyn Bloc - 1.7%, Freedom - 1.7%. The rest - less than 1%, against all - 3.2%, have not decided or not taking part in elections - 11%.

Analyzing the structure of voters of political forces, the following trends can be seen.

Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and the Front for Change have practically identical regional structures (a third of supporters in the West, a quarter in the North and in the Center). Our Ukraine and especially Freedom are mainly West-oriented.

The CPU and the Party of Regions are traditionally focused on the South-Eastern regions.

The structure of supporters of Strong Ukraine is the most universal: one half from the so-called "orange" regions (with minor diversion to the North), another half from the so-called "white-blue" regions (with significant dominance of the East).

Strong Ukraine and Freedom have the most supporters with higher education in their structure. These two forces are mostly oriented to the youth. Elderly people prevail in the structures of the CPU and Our Ukraine. Based on survey data, it can be assumed that the supporters of Freedom are "new" nationalists and supporters of Our Ukraine are "old" nationalists.

Among supporters of Freedom, the CPU and Our Ukraine there are mostly men. As for other political forces – there are women.

Voters of the Party of Regions, the CPU and Strong Ukraine are mostly urban, while voters of Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and Lytvyn Bloc are mostly rural.

Russian-speaking population prevails only in the structure of the Party of Regions and the CPU, where there are the majority of Russians. It is necessary to emphasize the structure of supporters of Strong Ukraine as the most universal taking into account the language considered native by the voters: one half - Ukrainian, the other half - either Russian or both Ukrainian and Russian.

The target audience of the research: the population of Ukraine aged from 18 and older. Optional quantity: 2000 respondents. The methods of investigation: personal formalized interview according to the questionnaire (face to face). Measure of inaccuracy for the values close to 50% is less than 3%, for the values close to 30% – less than 2,6% for the values close to 10% – less than 1,8. The period of completion: 2-10 of Marсh 2010.

The oblast’ distribution:

West: Volyns’ka, Transcarpathia, Ivano–Frankivs’ka, L’vivs’ka, Rivnens’ka, Ternopil’s’ka, Chernivets’ka.
Centre: Vinnyts’ka, Kirovograds’ka, Poltavs’ka, Khmel’nyts’ka, Cherkas’ka.
North: Kyiv, Kyivs’ka, Zhytomyrs’ka, Sums’ka, Chernihivs’ka.
South: AR Crimea, Odes’ka, Khersons’ka, Mykolaivs’ka, Sevastopol
East: Dnipropetrovs’ka, Zaporiz’ka, Kharkivs’ka.
Donbass: Donets’ka, Luhans’ka.