Electoral moods of the Ukrainian population: May 2011

According to the research conducted by the Sociological group "Rating", if elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place at the end of May 2011, 32% of respondents would definitely take part in them, 35% would likely take part. The activity in presidential elections is slightly higher: 36% of respondents would definitely take part in them, 36% would likely take part. Voters of Civil Position, Freedom, UDAR and Batkivshchyna remain the most mobilized.

RESULTS:

If elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine were held at the end of May 2011, 22,8% of respondents (among those who would participate in elections) would vote for the Party of Regions, 18,8% - for Batkivshchyna, 9,3% - for Front for Change, 5,5% - for Freedom, 5,5% - for Strong Ukraine, 4,5% - for the Communist Party and 4% - for V. Klitschko’s party UDAR.

Another 2,2% of voters would support Civil Position, 1,2% - the People's Party, 1,1% - Our Ukraine. Other parties would be supported by 4.4% of voters, 11,7% - would not support any of the parties ("against all"), 9% - have not made their choice.

Thus, if elections were held at the end of May and the passing barrier remained at the level of 3%, 7 parties would get to the Parliament: the Party of Regions, Batkivshchyna, Front for Change, Freedom, Strong Ukraine, CPU, and UDAR. In the case of raising the barrier up to 5% - only 5 parties without the Communists, and UDAR.

If Ukrainian presidential elections were held at the end of May 2011, 22,5% of respondents (among those who would participate in elections) would vote for V. Yanukovych, 18,4% - for Y. Tymoshenko, 10,1% - for A. Yatsenyuk, 7,1% - for S. Tihipko, 5% - for V. Klitschko, 3,6% - for O. Tiahnybok, 2,9% - for P. Symonenko and 2,8% - for A. Hrytsenko.

Other candidates would be supported by 6,8% of voters, 8,7% - would not support any of the candidates ("against all"), 12,1% - have not made their choice.

TENDENCIES:

• The key tendency: the continued growth in the number of respondents who do not support any of the parties (from 7% in December 2010 to 10% in March and 12% in May). It is noteworthy that among all respondents the number of the so-called "against all" is even higher - over 14% and more than a half of them intend to vote to confirm their position. Compared to March, the number of respondents who have not made their choice has also increased (up to 9%).
• Against this background, ratings of V. Yanukovych and the Party of Regions have dropped the most (from 26% to 23%). V. Yanukovych suffered the most appreciable losses in the base South and in Donbas, where the number of undecided and "against all" respondents is increasing.
• Y. Tymoshenko and A. Yatsenyuk suffered slight losses (party ratings have remained practically unchanged). Interestingly, in the West, where the leader of Batkivshchyna has lost the most, A. Yatsenyuk has improved his position. However, the leader of the Front for Change suffered minor losses in the Centre and in the North.
• Positions of Freedom remain stable (6% - in March and 5,5% - in May).
• Against the background of relative deterioration in positions of leaders, positions of V. Klitschko and the party UDAR have improved almost twofold (from 3% to 5% and from 2% to 4% respectively), especially in the West, in the North and in the South.
• S. Tihipko slightly strengthened his positions in the South and in Donbas, resulting in slightly improved overall rating (from 6% to 7%).

The target audience of the research: the population of Ukraine aged from 18 and older. Optional quantity: 2000 respondents. The methods of investigation: personal formalized interview according to the questionnaire (face to face). Measure of inaccuracy for the values close to 50% is less than 2,2%, for the values close to 30% – less than 2%, for the values close to 10% – less than 1,3. The period of completion: 26 of May - 2 of June 2011

The oblast’ distribution:

West: Volyns’ka, Transcarpathia, Ivano–Frankivs’ka, L’vivs’ka, Rivnens’ka, Ternopil’s’ka, Chernivets’ka.
Centre: Vinnyts’ka, Kirovograds’ka, Poltavs’ka, Khmel’nyts’ka, Cherkas’ka.
North: Kyiv, Kyivs’ka, Zhytomyrs’ka, Sums’ka, Chernihivs’ka.
South: AR Crimea, Odes’ka, Khersons’ka, Mykolaivs’ka, Sevastopol
East: Dnipropetrovs’ka, Zaporiz’ka, Kharkivs’ka.
Donbass: Donets’ka, Luhans’ka.