Electoral moods of the Ukrainian population: October 2009

According to the nationwide survey conducted in October 2009, the electors’ activity for the last two months has increased.

Thus, 57.5% of respondents said they would surely participate in the presidential elections (in August - 49%), 26.2% mentioned they would probably participate in the elections (in August - 31%).

The sympathy rating in the presidential elections is headed by Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko.

The main tendencies concerning changes of electoral sympathies (as compared to August 2009) are the following.

Over the last two months, the race leaders consolidated their positions. Yulia Tymoshenko’s rating has increased the most (from 15.4% to 19.4%), the rating of Viktor Yanukovych has increased slightly less (from 28.9% to 31.1%). Both politicians work on the issue of mobilizing their voters. Thus, support for Tymoshenko has grown throughout the country (mostly in the West and in the North). In turn, support for Viktor Yanukovych increased in Donbas, in the South, in the Centre and in the North, and decreased in the East.

Support for A. Yatsenyuk decreased from 12.3% to 8%. The leader of "Front for Change" has suffered greater losses in the West, where his rating fell from 24% to 13%.

Accordingly, the sympathy rating in the West was headed by Y. Tymoshenko, for the first time in six months. In addition, A. Yatsenyuk suffered losses in the East, in the South and in the North.

There is a growth of sympathy for S. Tihipko, whose rating increased almost threefold since August (from 1% to 2.9%). The greatest progress is in the East, where his rating rose from 1.7% to 6.4%, as well as in the Center, in the North and in Donbas. As a result, S. Tihipko almost equaled V. Yushchenko and P. Symonenko, and is slightly ahead of V. Lytvyn.

There is a slight improvement in Yushchenko’s positions (from 2,6% to 3,4%), primarily in the West. There is also a slight change for the worse in Lytvyn’s positions (from 3.7% to 2.2%), primarily in the North.

Practically in every region there is a tendency to reduce the number of respondents who intend to vote for the so-called "other" candidates – crystallization of voters towards favorites.

The distribution of votes among those who intend to participate in the presidential elections is: V. Yanukovych - 35.6%, Y. Tymoshenko - 22.1%; A. Yatsenyuk - 9.1%, P. Symonenko - 3.9% , V. Yushchenko - 3.8%, S. Tihipko - 3,3%, V. Lytvyn - 2.3%. Others - 4.6%, against all - 7.2%, have not decided- 7,9%.

As an answer to the question "Who would you vote for if V. Yanukovych and Y. Tymoshenko participated in the second round of the elections?", almost 40% of respondents preferred the leader of the Party of Regions and 30% - the leader of Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc. It is necessary to mention that in August the difference between these two candidates in the second round was 12.5%, in October - 10%.

As for the other possible pair "Yanukovych-Yatsenyuk" there is an opposite tendency: in August the difference was 10.5%, in October - 13% (39% against 26% in favor of V. Yanukovych).

As for the hypothetical pair "Yatsenyuk-Tymoshenko, in October it was Tymoshenko’s victory - 27% to 23%, while in August it was Yatsenyuk’s - 23% to 19%.

None of the Ukrainian politicians have a positive balance of trust-distrust.

In the trust rating V. Yanukovych is the leader (trust - 41% distrust - 53%). The most trusted is the leader of the Party of Regions in Donbas and in the South (69% and 62%), the least trusted he is in the West (16%). V. Yanukovych is distrusted in the West - 79% of respondents.

Y. Tymoshenko and A. Yatsenyuk have practically identical indices of aggregate trust - about 31%.

In addition, the leader of Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc is trust almost twice as much as the leader of "Front for Change" (15% and 9% respectively). At the same time, Y. Tymoshenko is more distrusted than A. Yatsenyuk (64% and 56% respectively).

30% of respondents trust V. Lytvyn (only 4% trust absolutely), distrust - 60%. The head of the Verkhovna Rada is trusted in the North and in the South most of all (38% and 36% respectively), least of all - in Donbas - 18%.

Viktor Yushchenko is trusted by 9% (absolutely trusted only by 3%) of respondents, distrusted by 86%. The serving President is the most trusted in the West and in the North (24% and 10% respectively), in other regions the level of trust ranges from 1% in Donbas to 5% in the Center.

Ratings of the political forces follow the tendencies of sympathy changes for presidential candidates. Distribution of votes among those who intend to participate in the elections is the following: The Party of Regions - 35.8%, Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc - 21.5%, Yatsenyuk Bloc - 7.8%, CPU - 3.9%, Our Ukraine - 3 , 1%, Tihipko Bloc - 2.5%, Lytvyn Bloc - 1.9%. Other parties and blocs - 4.8%, against all - 8%, have not decided - 10.7%.

The target audience of the research: the population of Ukraine aged from 18 and older. Optional quantity: 2000 respondents. The methods of investigation: personal formalized interview according to the questionnaire (face to face). Measure of inaccuracy for the values close to 50% is less than 3%, for the values close to 30% – less than 2,6%, for the values close to 10% – less than 1,8%. The period of completion: 3-12 of October  2009

The oblast’ distribution:

West: Volyns’ka, Transcarpathia, Ivano–Frankivs’ka, L’vivs’ka, Rivnens’ka, Ternopil’s’ka, Chernivets’ka.
Centre: Vinnyts’ka, Kirovograds’ka, Poltavs’ka, Khmel’nyts’ka, Cherkas’ka.
North: Kyiv, Kyivs’ka, Zhytomyrs’ka, Sums’ka, Chernihivs’ka.
South: AR Crimea, Odes’ka, Khersons’ka, Mykolaivs’ka, Sevastopol
East: Dnipropetrovs’ka, Zaporiz’ka, Kharkivs’ka.
Donbass: Donets’ka, Luhans’ka.