Electoral moods of the Ukrainian population: March 2011

According to the research conducted by the Sociological group "Rating", if elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place in March 2011, 29% of respondents would definitely participate in them, other 36% would likely participate.the  Activity during presidential elections is traditionally higher: if elections of the President of Ukraine took place in March - 32% of respondents would definitely participate in them, other 37% would likely participate.

Voters of Freedom, Civil Position and the Communist Party are the most mobilized. The least mobilized are voters of Strong Ukraine and UDAR party.

Almost a half of respondents do not support any party ("against all") or have not decided with their choice – have no intention to participate in elections.

RESULTS:

If elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine were held in March 2011, 26,2% of respondents (among those who would participate in elections) would vote for the Party of Regions, 19,7% - for Batkivshchyna, 9,3% - for the Front for Change, 6% - for Freedom, 5,6% - for Strong Ukraine, 4,6% - for the Communist Party.

1,9% of voters would support Civil Position and 1,9% would support UDAR; 1,3% - the People's Party, 1,2% - Our Ukraine. Other parties would be supported by 4.3% of voters, 10,4% - would not support any of the parties ("against all"), 7,6% - have not made their choice.

If presidential elections in Ukraine were held in March 2011, 26% of respondents (among those who would participate in elections) would vote for V. Yanukovych, 20,3% - for Y. Tymoshenko, 11,2% - for A. Yatsenyuk, 6,4% - for S. Tihipko, 4,2% - for O. Tiahnybok, 3,5% - for P. Symonenko, 2,8% - for V. Klitschko, 2,8% - for A. Hrytsenko, 1,7% - for V. Yushchenko, 1,2% - for V. Lytvyn.

Other candidates would be supported by 2,6% of voters, 8,8% - would not support any ("against all"), 8,5% - have not made their choice.

TENDENCIES:

• Support for V. Yanukovych continues to decrease (from 32% in December last year to 26% in March this year), as well as support for the Party of Regions (from 30% to 26%). In general,  V. Yanukovych has lost up to one third of his supporters over a year, or about 10% of the rating. And as compared to the peak of support for him, which was fixed in April-June 2010, - it is almost a half of supporters or 20% of the rating. V. Yanukovych has suffered the greatest losses in the Center, in the North and in the South.
• Compared to December last year, positions of Y. Tymoshenko and Batkivshchyna have hardly changed – they are supported by about 20% of voters. Against the regional background, Y. Tymoshenko’s positions have only improved in the West. Since March last year, Y. Tymoshenko’s rating has dropped from 24% to 20%.
• A. Yatsenyuk shows a slight increase (from 8% in December last year to 11% in March this year), as well as the Front for Change (from 7% to 9%). The greatest support for the leader of the Front for Change is in the West, in the North and in the Center, it has also improved in the South.
• Support for S. Tihipko and Strong Ukraine continues to decrease, and over the year it decreased by half. Thus, in March - June last year S. Tihipko’s rating was around 13%, in October - 10%, in December - 8%, in March this year - 6%.
• The rating of Freedom stably remains at 6% over the last four months, it has increased threefold over the year.
• The rating of the Communist Party shows slight tendencies of improvement; it increased by 5% over the year.
• V. Klitschko’s party UDAR and A. Hrytsenko’s Civil Position are close to overcoming the 3% barrier; they are supported by 2% of voters. Ratings of the leaders of these parties are higher - 3% each.
• The number of voters who do not support any party ("against all") has increased almost half as much again - from 7% in October last year to 10% - in March this year. Interestingly, immediately after presidential elections there were only  about 2% of "against all" respondents. 

The target audience of the research: the population of Ukraine aged from 18 and older. Optional quantity: 2000 respondents. The methods of investigation: personal formalized interview according to the questionnaire (face to face). Measure of inaccuracy for the values close to 50% is less than 2,2%, for the values close to 30% – less than 2%, for the values close to 10% – less than 1,3. The period of completion: 4-14 of March 2011

The oblast’ distribution:

West: Volyns’ka, Transcarpathia, Ivano–Frankivs’ka, L’vivs’ka, Rivnens’ka, Ternopil’s’ka, Chernivets’ka.
Centre: Vinnyts’ka, Kirovograds’ka, Poltavs’ka, Khmel’nyts’ka, Cherkas’ka.
North: Kyiv, Kyivs’ka, Zhytomyrs’ka, Sums’ka, Chernihivs’ka.
South: AR Crimea, Odes’ka, Khersons’ka, Mykolaivs’ka, Sevastopol
East: Dnipropetrovs’ka, Zaporiz’ka, Kharkivs’ka.
Donbass: Donets’ka, Luhans’ka.